This Time it Will Hurt the North

In my amateur analysis I would say North Korea's actions will only harm itself.

• The Obama administration opened the door and eased negotiations for aid and power supplies to North Korea. These will become more hardline, if they resume at all.
• China has distanced itself from DPRK recently and this will continue this trend.
• China is worried about mass immigration if the DPRK falls or becomes fragile. This has encouraged them to prop up Pyongyang in the past. But if the US can broker a deal. Such as financing (from DPRK assets frozen in Switzerland?) or guaranteeing taking on refugees from the north then this could be solved.
• If this test is related to internal affairs in a bid to scare away outsiders interfering in the passover of power then it has only shown the weakness of the regime. Furthermore it may have just tipped the scales in in the minds of international negotiators that the only way to solve North Korea is regime change.
• The likely hood of war is minuscule but the Chines can literally not afford a long scale/damaging war between the US and North Korrea, never mind coming in on the DPRK's side. If the US bails on the Chinese deficit then China will sink. If the dollar falls so do China's cash reserves. Blessed be trade.
  
• South Korea has no choice now but to fall in even deeper with Japan and the US. North Korea's threats of war due to Seoul's relationships with the West will now be totally ignored.
  

North Korea is Breaking My Bank

I know there are more important things but look at the change in currency rates after the North tested that bomb.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/40382/intraday.stm

It's osting me money!

North Korea Test Nuclear 'Bomb'

At 11am this morning I switched on the TV and it was being reported that North Korea tested a nuclear explosion within the last hour. It has now been confirmed by North Korean media that it was a nuclear test in the name of 'security deterrent'. As I write there are some fighter jets scrambling over head.

I think most South Koreans have got used to the idea of a nuclear motivated neighbour.

Ambassador Hughes?

I don't think Martin Ulden's blog has ever seen so much activity. I wonder how he will feel when after months of blogging with no comments, Guest bogger form DPRK Peter Hughes turns up and starts a debating chamber. I think the British Ambassador to DPRK pointed out on his second post how he wished to seperate the people from the politics. This, in my opinion, is a legitimate stance. However reading the comment by James I fear he has the wrong end of the stick aswell. I don't think anyone wants to return to gun boat diplomacy and 'grandstanding' ways, prefering brutal action over the art of diplomacy. However if you wish to engage the DPRK's regime 'based on mutual respect and understanding' then you might as well say goodbye to all your values and any freedom you have ever defended. That is why the definition of the people from the state is important, as the ambassdor notes the people are just like everyone else. The British government in the North should help to facilitate NGOs , promote sound domestic policies which will benefit the public, and work towards a favourable representation of Britain to the population. However at the political level we can not engage with the DPRK as an equal partner. Ambassadors and envoys can engage as they see fit, always courteously, often undertanding, but never can we argue that the DPRK's leaders deserve mutual respect. Not only are the regimes value systems the antipathy of our own but they also represent a parasitic and war mongering nation; a threat to Asian economics and stability and international peace. If you will not condemn a regime such as that James, at least privately, then you can not preach any morality publicly. Ambassador Hughes?

Short analysis

Today the South Korean and American military have a joint training session which will last for 12 days. It's the biggest exercise of the year and is usually met with animosity from the North. The strange thing is that I only heard about the news from the bbc website. After checking The Korean Herald website sure enough there is a report, but not headline news.

It's a strange feeling living on the door step of a rogue state. Most of the time you never think about it and then you here they are threatening to immanently destroy Seoul because South Korea elected the 'wrong' president. The recent warning comes before the latest military training by the South and the Yanks. Incitements to hatred and fear out pore like a 1970s cold war propaganda video. Threats of instant invasion by the North or the barbaric and hostile outsiders threatening North Korea's enlightened path. However, as far as I can see the average person on the street is either completely aware of the North's bitter utterances and treats them as an annoyance rather than a threat, or is completely disinterested.

Kim Jung Ill has begun grooming his third son for power now that he can see his health is failing. I wonder what will happen to the North once he is gone. The contrast between the freedom of Seoul and that of Pyongyang is striking and saddening. In my view if there ever were a people who could embrace democracy and freedom, yet are held back by a dictator it must be the Koreans.

Over the last two years I have think the North has gradually increased its rhetoric against the South. Growing ever more venomous and spiteful towards it's southern kin. As the Republic grows prosperous, its people become well fed, and its young enjoy ever more integration with the international system, North Korea starves. Its encirclement ever more evident and ever more unified. Its traditional ally is departing on ideological grounds and lacking any need to continue trading. Its outbursts become ever more synonymous with the thrashings of an ignored child. Screaming louder to be heard and threatening to use violence if it is not acknowledged as the great nation it thinks it is. Sadly North Korea continues in its delirium to think itself an international power worth listening to; while in reality it is little more than a thorn in Asian unity. \Meanwhile North Koreans suffer under its theocracy.

One local man I spoke to put the military training in a better perspective.

'about time the US troops do something aside from hitting on girls in frog'

It's 6:35pm and no bombs have fallen yet. Fingers crossed.